PM faces brewing tensions over election timing

KUALA LUMPUR: A rare period of calm in Malaysia’s stormy politics may be nearing its end, with sources saying Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob faces growing pressure within his own party to call for a snap election.

Ismail, 62, is now entering his sixth month in office, after predecessor Muhyiddin Yassin was forced to resign due to a lack of majority support in Parliament. The prime minister has signaled his intention to stretch his administration until its term expires in August 2023, according to one well-placed source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The source said Ismail at least wants to wait until after the ruling Umno holds its own party elections in November, when he would seek the party leadership.

“Being prime minister when contesting for the party presidency would be a crucial advantage for him,” the insider explained. Currently, Ismail is one of three vice-presidents in Malaysia’s oldest political outfit.

Some key Umno figures appear to have other ideas.

Another source who requested anonymity said Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, the current Umno president and a former deputy prime minister, wants Ismail to dissolve Parliament for the next general election (GE15) to be held much sooner. The right to advise the King to dissolve the legislature rests with the prime minister.

Looming over Zahid is a Kuala Lumpur High Court case in which he faces charges of criminal breach of trust (CBT), corruption and money laundering – all of which he denies.

“Before the court delivers a judgment that could disqualify him (Zahid) from contesting in the next election, he wants an election to take place,” the source said.

Court dates are currently set through August.

Under the Federal Constitution, a person is disqualified from running in an election if he or she is sentenced to more than a year in prison or handed a fine of at least RM2,000, and has not been pardoned.

This is the predicament Umno heavyweight and former Prime Minister Najib Razak – convicted on seven similar charges in connection with a subsidiary of defunct state fund 1MDB – now finds himself in, pending further appeal.

If Zahid is able to contest the next election as party president and Umno wins, many believe he would seek to step in as prime minister himself.

Landslide wins in Melaka and Sarawak

The sources agreed that Zahid and Umno likely have another important reason to push for an early general election: favorable results in two recent state polls.

The state elections in Melaka saw the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition emerge victorious in 21 constituencies out of 28 seats contested – an improvement from the coalition’s 12-seat performance in the 2018 elections.

In Sarawak, the BN-friendly Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) swept 76 out of 82 assembly seats up for grabs. All the GPS parties were previously part of BN before exiting in 2018 following BN’s loss in the last general election (GE14), but they remain on good terms.

Umno bosses hope to carry this momentum into GE15. Despite the party’s scandals, many voters see it as a steady hand to guide the country through tough times, especially after the opposition’s own infighting doomed the Pakatan Harapan government of Dr Mahathir Mohamad less than two years after it was elected.

One of the sources noted that Ismail could face pressure to fold Parliament from another direction – Muhyiddin’s Bersatu. The party has been at odds with Umno since they entered into a marriage of convenience in early 2020 and brought down the Mahathir administration.

Muhyiddin, now chairman of the National Recovery Council charged with guiding the way out of the pandemic, quit last August after some Umno MPs rescinded support for his government.

Despite this, Ismail secured Bersatu’s backing to form his government, restoring Umno to the top position it had held for all but three years since independence in 1957. Yet many have speculated that, at some point, Muhyiddin might pull a similar move to the one that triggered his downfall.

Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute Malaysia, said Ismail’s biggest weakness is being the first prime minister who does not lead a political party.

In Umno, he is third in line behind Zahid and deputy president Mohamad Hasan. Despite this, he emerged as the party’s pick for prime minister as coalition allies were reluctant to back Zahid, while Mohamad could not take up the post as he was not an MP.

Ismail had also served as opposition leader after GE14, when Zahid took a hiatus due to his legal troubles, and was a senior minister in Muhyiddin’s government – making him a logical choice.

Normally, however, Welsh said the party presidency is a crucial factor in candidacy for national leadership. “The position matters for its powers and will affect the elections, and Ismail is weaker without the party position,” she said.

Welsh predicted the prime minister would try to put off election at least until the second half of this year. She noted that although he has managed to stay in power and stabilise politics by virtue of arrangements with his coalition and a cease-fire with the opposition, he has yet to achieve meaningful governance outcomes.

She said his handling of Malaysia’s recent floods was “poor” and that, unlike his predecessors, “he does not have significant popularity.”

Dozens were killed and thousands displaced in December when persistent heavy rains caused Malaysia’s worst flooding in years.

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Ismail’s long-term political ambitions hinge on winning the party presidency.

“If he wants to be a long-lasting prime minister, then he has to be the party president, and if he does want to run, this is the time to do it due to his position as prime minister, (which would allow him to) disburse all resources at the Umno polls,” he said.

Oh added that Ismail was likely to try to see out his full term until August 2023, or at least wait until after the Umno polls before putting his fate in the public’s hands. — Free Malaysia Today